The recent election of a new Labour government has brought with it a fresh wave of promises and expectations, particularly in the area of social care. However, the future of social care in the UK remains uncertain, and the need for a sustainable, comprehensive system has never been more pressing. In this blog, Yvonne Birks, Professor of Applied Social Care Research and Trustee at HSR UK delves into the challenges and opportunities ahead.
The changing demographics of the UK: a social care time bomb
One of the biggest challenges facing social care today is the shift in family dynamics where the number of people without children is growing rapidly. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), 1 in 10 people over 60 and 1 in 5 over 50, are without children. By 2045, the number of octogenarians without children is expected to triple. This dramatic demographic shift means the traditional model of social care, often built on the assumption of familial support, is rapidly becoming unsustainable. The idea of the traditional family, where everyone lived nearby and women were full-time caregivers, no longer holds true. Without family to rely on, the demand for professional social care services will only increase, and the system must adapt to meet these new realities.
Labour’s promised national care service: ambitious but undefined
The new Labour government has made a headline commitment to creating a national care service, with a 10-year plan aimed at reforming the system. The principle of “home first” care, which focuses on preventing people from entering institutional care and instead providing support at home, is a promising approach. However, much of the detail underpinning this vision remains unclear. While councils had been preparing for the introduction of a care cap—a key recommendation from the Dilnot Report—this policy has been repeatedly delayed and now seems unlikely to be implemented. The care cap, though imperfect, would have made the system fairer by making means testing more generous and helping people avoid catastrophic care costs. It wouldn’t have put social care on the same footing as healthcare, but it would have been an important step in the right direction. The challenge now is understanding what a national care service might actually look like and how individuals should plan for their future care needs in this evolving landscape.
Navigating the current system: a complex and confusing process
Even under the current system, social care is notoriously difficult to navigate, particularly for those who are frail, cognitively impaired, or isolated. The process of accessing care is complicated, and many people struggle to understand their entitlements or how to access the right support. Unmet care needs are common, and too many people are falling through the cracks of a system that is universally recognised as broken. As the population ages and the number of people without family support increases, this problem will only worsen unless comprehensive reforms are put in place.
A hope for meaningful reform: building a fairer, accessible system
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the Labour government’s social care proposals, there is hope that the delay in reforming the system might lead to more thoughtful and effective policies. It’s clear that any new social care system must be fairer, ensuring that more people have access to consistent, high-quality care that is, at least in part, state-funded—more like the NHS. This, many believe, is the true mark of a decent and caring society.
For those of us focused on social care, the belief is that there is now a critical window for reform. The system needs to address the growing inequalities in access and quality of care, and it must do so quickly. While the planned royal commission on social care is a positive step, it is unlikely to move rapidly, and there is no guarantee its recommendations will be fully accepted.
This lack of urgency leaves many of us concerned that meaningful change may be slow to arrive—yet the need for reform is more urgent than ever. The current system is not fit for purpose, and without significant improvements, more people will be left without the care they deserve.
Professor Yvonne Birks is Director of the NIHR School for Social Care Research and an NIHR Senior Investigator. Based at the University of York, she is Professor of Applied Health and Social Care Research in the School of Business and Society.